“The Public Health Agency (PHA) privately cautioned the Western Trust that its conclusions went beyond what the data could support. An independent statistical review confirmed no significant improvement. Yet the Trust continued — and apparently continues — to make its “lives saved” claims publicly . 
“Mark McGuigan was 61 years old, from Roslea in Fermanagh. He developed gallstone problems, was sent directly to Altnagelvin under the new pathway, waited three days in an Emergency Department (ED) chair, developed sepsis, then pancreatitis, then necrotising fasciitis, and died on 17th November 2025 — never having reached surgery. His death will not appear in the Trust’s RAMI statistics. RAMI counts inpatient surgical deaths. He died in intensive care in Belfast.”
“The RAMI data provider itself recommends approximately 1,000 deaths for reliable comparisons. The Western Trust has around 100 per year. This is not a minor methodological quibble. It means that the entire delineation of “improved outcomes” rests on figures whose confidence intervals are so wide that almost any conclusion could be drawn from them.
THis report was commissioned by SOAS as we were aware that the statements made by WHSCT were NOT challenged.
Slugger O”Toole ran a thought provoking article on them:
This was followed up recently by The Derry Now Paper.
This inculded strong and detailed interviews with experts.
Speaking to The Derry News, London-based statistician Paul Bassett said there was “a lot of uncertainty around the Trust’s figures”.
Mr Bassett specialises in the application of statistics in medical research and clinical trials.
